The Turkish presidential election held on May 14th , which was held on May 14, is the most

Reversing expectations that Erdogan would be at a disadvantage

In this presidential election, it was impossible to predict who would win the election until the day of the election. If Erdogan wins, according to the constitutional amendment, he will be in power for a total of 30 years, until 2033. In fact, this presidential election was a very unfavorable one for the current president, Erdogan. In the meantime, Turkiye under Erdogan’s rule has been shaken as much as the national economy is shaken by Syrian refugees who have already flowed into the country. Refugees who came in with money created malicious inflation by buying real estate without hesitation. Refugees who barely entered the country with nothing but their lives were involved in various crimes in order to survive, creating many social problems. The refugee issue added extreme anxiety to the people of Turkey, who were already exhausted from high prices.

On top of that, Erdogan, who lost the people’s trust due to the most powerful earthquake in history that recently occurred in the southeastern region of Turkey, suddenly collapsed during a recent election campaign, and rumors of his health were out of whack. However, looking at the results of the May 14 presidential election, it can be unexpectedly evaluated as President Erdogan’s propaganda and Candidate Kultz Daroglu’s defeat. The following two factors are in the background of Erdogan’s success overcoming various adverse factors.  First, it is because of the public expectations of the new political party, the Justice and Development Party ( AKP

) , which was launched in 2003 . AKP founded by Erdoganwas not born out of a coup d’état or social unrest like other ruling parties in the past. Nor was it a party that was born to preserve tradition and national ideology. It was just a party that took power as a fisherman when it was considered that there was no party left to choose from in a situation where national distrust of the existing party prevailed in the vicious cycle of the domestic economy. Of course, it was formed by existing lawmakers, but it was clearly a new party, and the people’s expectations for the emergence of a new party were included.

Erdogan’s political supporters were also middle-class traders who were rooted in conservative Islam in Turkey at the time. Erdogan pursued new changes gradually without destroying the existing order, and succeeded in securing a fairly wide base of support by showing a policy image that recognized the existing system established by secular capitalists, which is one reason for his long-term rule. has become The second is Erdogan’s diplomatic success toward joining the EU

, which has been a national long-cherished dream since the beginning of the Republic . After the Helsinki summit in 1999, Turkey accelerated its accession to the EU , and in this process, it was virtually guaranteed long-term power by succeeding in joining the EU , which no ruling party had done until then. In fact, the general consensus is that it is more appropriate to view this part as the result of the efforts of other ruling parties that have been working hard until then, rather than Erdogan’s diplomatic success. For Erdogan, he had the good fortune of putting a spoon on a fully prepared table.

The economy of Turkey has been in a vicious cycle even before Erdogan came to power. The people’s disappointment at the time and the longing for a new party brought Erdogan to power. Therefore, Erdogan’s emergence and coming to power began with the combination of this national disappointment and anger, the national longing for a new party, and the hope of joining the EU , which was perceived as a breakthrough for the Turkiye economy.

Since then, Erdogan has revealed his true colors with strong right-wing Islamist tendencies. Nevertheless, his 20-year term in office is a testament to how great the national expectations were for Erdogan. It was Erdoğan’s leadership that led the Turkiye economy through smooth coordination of currency reform, exchange rate adjustment, and malicious inflation, backed by such national support for the AKP . During Erdogan’s presidency, as we have seen in the protests aspiring for democracy and other large and small anti-government protests held in Istanbul’s Gezi Park with numerous citizens participating, many people still believe in the support of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the Republic. I think the secularism ideology of the first president) should be the basis. This also means that public opinion opposes the ‘post-secularism’ that Erdogan is pushing forward.

Kultzdaroglu, there is a resentment of an incompetent leader

Despite Erdogan’s propaganda in this presidential election, despite the negative public sentiment mentioned above, there is an aspect that, albeit belatedly, intensive support for the residents affected by the earthquake has had some effect. But more decisively was the help of opposition candidates. As candidate Kultz Daroglu’s remarks in support of the Kurdish rebels ( PKK ) emerged, it made the Turkic people, who have strong nationalist tendencies, turn to Erdogan again.

The opposition coalition candidate Cultz Daroglu has long served as the leader of the opposition party, but there is national resentment that he is an incompetent leader who has failed to lead numerous elections to victory. In addition to this, he abandoned the ideology of Western-oriented secularism and nationalism, and supported parties such as the Green Left Party ( YSP ) , which supported the PKK , and brought them into his support group, which was a decisive defeat. As a result, the united front of the opposition parties collapsed, and as another opposition coalition was created, opposition votes were dispersed. Although it is a consequential story안전놀이터, it is pointed out that the opposition could have won if Ankara Mayor Mansour Yavash, who received a lot of public support, had been nominated as the opposition presidential candidate instead of Kultzdaroglu. This is because Yavash is the son of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who once led the Turkiye Army, and is regarded as the most distinct successor to Atatürk’s spirit.

First of all, the second round of voting was narrowed down to a confrontation between President Erdogan and Candidate Kultz Daroglu. If Erdogan extends his term of office following the results of the May 28 presidential election, it is difficult to expect major changes in Turkey. However, if a new president is elected, the direction of Erdogan’s balanced diplomacy between the US and Russia, which seems like opportunism, will change to pro-US and pro-Western diplomacy. Of course, if Cults Daroglu wins, it is expected that the Republic of Turkey will return to its original secularism. However, no matter who takes power, the push and pull between Turkey and the EU is expected to continue. 

important election in the world this year . It attracted a great deal of attention. This is because whether current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stays in power or steps down has a great impact on the dynamics of the world, including the United States, Russia and the European Union ( EU ). As a result, neither the ruling party’s President Erdogan (49.4%) nor the opposition coalition’s candidate, Republican People’s Party ( CHP ) leader Kemal Kultzdaroglu (44.9%) failed to achieve a majority, leading to a second runoff on May 28. have been carried out